Kibbles and Picks 2023 – Week 4
Another week, another game regained.
Sure, I’m still behind, but now it’s by just one single game, courtesy of my second consecutive 10-6 week. Meanwhile, Stella has somehow managed to go 9-7 again – she’s had the exact same record for every slate in the season thus far. Granted, all it will take is another brutal sub-.500 week to put me back in the hole, but for now, things are looking up!
Despite the fact that we’ve got a week filled with a lot of seemingly even matchups, Stella and I still managed to land on opposite sides of just six contests. Still, that’s plenty of room for one or the other of us to see our record move significantly.
First up is the Miami/Buffalo tilt. I’m going with the visiting Dolphins here. Now, I recognize that the Fins aren’t going to go for over 700 yards again. Nor will they score 10 touchdowns. But they sure do look like a squad that’s got some stuff figured out, with Tua Tagovailoa leading a hell of an offense. Tyreek Hill is as good a wideout as any in the game and the rushing attack led by Raheem Mostert looks awesome. Add in a solid defense and Coach Mike McDaniel sure looks like the genius everyone thought he might be. Stella doesn’t really disagree with any of that, but she also thinks that the Buffalo Bills are a whole different experience than the Denver Broncos. She likes Josh Allen to take it to the Dolphins in a big way, with big games to come from guys like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. She’s expecting some solid ball control sprinkled with a handful of big plays – more than enough to handle a very good Miami team. She’s also anticipating a couple of opportune turnovers that may well make the difference. Basically, she knows the Dolphins are good, but they won’t come close to repeating last week.
In a polar opposite matchup, we have Denver and Chicago. No one outside of hardcore fans of those teams and degenerate gamblers will care. Nor should they. I went with Chicago because they’re at home and they PROBABLY won’t lose every game this season, so that win has to come from somewhere. Stella’s got the Broncos, partly because she thinks they’ll try to bounce back from last week’s humiliation, but mostly because she thinks the Bears are outright terrible. Please don’t watch this game.
From there, we head to Cleveland, where the Ravens take on the Browns. I’ve got Baltimore here, mostly because I think Lamar Jackson is still relatively healthy and hence will be able to take it to the Browns. He’ll need some help from the defense, of course, but I expect they’ll be able to force a few turnovers against this Cleveland squad. Stella’s not sold on Baltimore, and while she thinks Deshaun Watson is a reprehensible human, she’s also seen his play improve. The loss of Nick Chubb will continue to sting, but there’s a LOT of talent on the defensive side for the Browns; she thinks they’ll be harassing Jackson all night long. Browns Past versus Browns Present – who ya got?
There’s not much particularly exciting about Rams/Colts, though it does feel very much like a coin flip type of a game. I’ve got the Colts winning at home, mostly because I’m excited about the looming return of dynamic rookie QB Anthony Richardson. My excitement will be downgraded significantly if Indy winds up with Gardner Minshew under center again this week. Still, there’s something frisky about this Colts squad – I think they’ve got enough to handle a Rams team with issues of its own. Stella also likes Richardson, but she just doesn’t think Indy has the horses (get it?) to hang with the Rams this week. She’s liked what she’s seen from Matthew Stafford and she REALLY likes the delightfully-named wideout pair that she’s taken to calling “Puca & Tutu” like some sort of Disney kiddie show. The truth is that neither of us will be surprised by the outcome of this one, regardless of who wins.
Once again, I’ve gone with my heart and picked the Patriots to win, this time on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Surprising? Not at all. Stupid? Quite probably. Coming off their first win of the season, one they barely eked out over a not-good Jets squad, the pats head to Dallas to face a team that is probably pretty furious about losing to the Cardinals and looking to make a statement. Mac Jones has looked … fine. The running game is due to step up; we’ll need a big game out of Rhamondre Stevenson and/or former Cowboy Zeke Elliott. And the New England D has to do what they do as well as they can do it against a pretty powerful Dallas offense. Stella thinks I’m nuts for picking New England here; she’s ready to make an argument that the Cowboys are better at just about every position on the field (an argument I can’t really refute). She’s guessing that Dak Prescott has a good game, connecting with Cee Dee Lamb on a few big plays, and that Tony Pollard has an even better game running the ball. Plus, Micah Parsons and the Dallas D are going to be all over Jones and company. I’m very much leading with my heart on this one. Stella’s thinking clearly. I have a hunch I know how this will play out, but hey – dare to dream, right?
Lastly, in the Monday night game, I’ve got Seattle winning on the road against the Giants. It’s less that I think the Seahawks are good – although Kenneth Walker looks great running the ball and QB Geno Smith seems to be rounding back into form – and more that I think the Giants are bad. Whether that thought holds up remains to be seen, but that’s where I’ve landed. Expect at least one Seattle skill position player to really go off. Stella’s not a huge Giants believer, but she expects that Daniel Jones will have to bounce back after a rough outing last week against the Niners. The G-Men are coming off a lengthy rest, so they should be at full capacity entering this game. While Stella acknowledges the general anonymity of the Giants in terms of overall production, she thinks they’ve got enough juice to sneak one by a Seahawks team that, on paper at least, is the superior squad.
And there it is. Six games. Follow along over the coming days and see if I’m able to take the lead, if Stella buries me … or if we more or less tread water. Regardless, it looks like a pretty competitive weekend of football. Enjoy it! I know we will.
(winners in caps)
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ALLEN’S PICKS
Thursday, September 28
DETROIT at Green Bay
Sunday, October 1
Atlanta at JACKSONVILLE
MIAMI at Buffalo
Denver at CHICAGO
BALTIMORE at Cleveland
CINCINNATI at Tennessee
LA Rams at INDIANAPOLIS
Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS
Washington at PHILADELPHIA
MINNESOTA at Carolina
PITTSBURGH at Houston
Las Vegas at LA CHARGERS
NEW ENGLAND at Dallas
Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO
KANSAS CITY at NY Jets
Monday, October 2
SEATTLE at NY Giants
Week 3 record: 10-6
Season record: 26-22
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STELLA’S PICKS
Thursday, September 28
DETROIT at Green Bay
Sunday, October 1
Atlanta at JACKSONVILLE
Miami at BUFFALO
DENVER at Chicago
Baltimore at CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI at Tennessee
LA RAMS at Indianapolis
Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS
Washington at PHILADELPHIA
MINNESOTA at Carolina
PITTSBURGH at Houston
Las Vegas at LA CHARGERS
New England at DALLAS
Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO
KANSAS CITY at NY Jets
Monday, October 2
Seattle at NY GIANTS
Week 3 record: 9-7
Season record: 27-21