Kibbles and Picks 2023 – Week 3
Hey now – that was MUCH better.
Well, it was for me, anyway. My 10-6 record took Week 2 and got me back up to even for the season. Stella’s total was just one game behind me at 9-7, but she still has a considerable lead thanks to her utter domination of the season’s kickoff slate.
Whatever. I’ll take it. As always, my ultimate goal is to simply avoid utter humiliation. So far, so good … but there’s a whole lot of football left to be played.
Stella and I are at odds in six of the week’s contests. In an odd quirk, I am going with the road team in five of those six. Just one of those things that happens from time to time – do something like this for over a decade, you’re going to see the occasional weird pattern.
(Note: I’m not at all certain that picking this many road teams is a good thing.)
First up, I’ve got Atlanta going into Detroit and beating the Lions. I’m not entirely sure why I feel good about the Falcons, but there’s something about them. Their running game, led by rookie Bijan Robinson and second-year guy Tyler Allgeier, looks like it could potentially do some work, even against a stout Lions front. The hope is that the Atlanta D can slow down the Detroit attack. Stella doesn’t think that’s going to happen; she’s not a huge Jared Goff fan, but she’s liked what she’s seen from this Lions offense so far. They score points and they move the ball. On the defensive side, she’s expecting to see something more like the Week 1 effort against KC rather than the struggles against Seattle. We’re both guessing this might be a lower scoring affair.
From there, it’s off to the not-yet-frozen tundra, where I have Green Bay winning as my only home pick among our six conflicts. I’m not sold on Jordan Love as a QB just yet, and there are a ton of injury issues among the skill positions – guys like Aaron Jones, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are all banged up to some degree. Still, I think the Packers will have enough to handle the visiting Saints. Stella’s not so sure – she’s a big fan of New Orleans wideout Chris Olave and is convinced that the Saints have something cooking for this week with multi-purpose tight end Taysom Hill. Sure, the Pack is at home, but with that depleted offense, Stella expects New Orleans to have little trouble handling their business.
In the Chargers/Vikings tilt, I’ve got Los Angeles taking down the Vikings. Sure, the Chargers are 0-2, but they’re not going to be 0-17; I think this is the game where they start their ascent. Justin Herbert remains an elite talent under center; this pick also comes with the expectation that Austin Ekeler will be back to tear it up out of the backfield. The Chargers defense also looks to potentially have answers against an admittedly-talented Minnesota offense. Stella thinks that the Vikings will be the team to get their first W here. The offense is going to continue airing it out, with Kirk Cousins throwing the ball to stalwart Justin Jefferson and an assortment of pass
catchers. She’s a little concerned that they can’t really run the ball, but thinks that the addition of Cam Akers might help alleviate that. This promises to be a pretty solid game.
In one of the few weeks where I can feel reasonably confident about my homer pick, I’ve got the Patriots winning on the road against the Jets. I’ve felt reasonably good about New England thus far – yes, they’re 0-2, but they’ve looked good against a couple of pretty strong teams. The Jets are … not strong. We’ll need to see more from Mac Jones and company, but I’m betting on the defense to have its way with the struggling Jets. Stella acknowledges that there might be a little bit of spite in this pick, but also feels very strongly that the Jets defense is one of the better such units in the league. As such, she thinks that the Patriots are going to have a tough time moving the ball against them. The Zach Wilson-led offense might not bring a lot to the table, but she’s guessing that the defense will keep them in it. She anticipates a big turnover or two to be the difference in what promises to be a low-scoring defensive battle.
After that, we head to Sin City for the Sunday night contest. I’ve got the Steelers coming in and taking down the Raiders. I don’t love either team here, but after the defensive effort put forth by Pittsburgh last week, I figure I’ll let it ride. The offense is a shambles, with the team struggling to move the ball on the ground or through the air, but that defense will make things VERY difficult for Vegas. Stella thinks I’m mad, picking Pittsburgh after that offensive atrocity last week. She’s no big proponent of the Raiders, but she expects that they will be able to move the ball well enough with weapons like Davante Adams. Plus, she expects the Steelers to once again put forth an abysmal effort on the offensive side; the Vegas defense might not be great, but this Pittsburgh offense will make them look like they are.
Lastly, in the second of the two Monday night games, I’ve got the Rams going into Cincinnati and knocking off the Bengals. Matt Stafford has looked reinvigorated at QB, and youngsters like Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have helped LA weather the absence of Cooper Kupp. Will it continue? Maybe not all season, but Cincy doesn’t appear to have any answers for the resurgent Rams aerial attack. Stella thinks the Bengals are just too darned talented for their slide to continue. She expects Joe Burrow to begin his bounceback with this contest; there’s just too much talent on the offensive side for this to continue much longer. Against an iffy Rams defense, Cincinnati has a great chance to try and right the ship. Their secondary will have to step up, but this collection of young wideouts seems destined to fall back to Earth.
And there it is! All six contests laid out there for all to see. Now, as to the accuracy of these picks, well … we’ll just have to wait and find out together, eh? I’m actually feeling pretty good about my choices this week, which probably means that I’m doomed. Stella sure thinks so.
Welcome to Week 3!
(winners in caps)
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ALLEN’S PICKS
Thursday, September 21
NY Giants at SAN FRANCISCO
Sunday, September 24
TENNESSEE at Cleveland
ATLANTA at Detroit
New Orleans at GREEN BAY
Denver at MIAMI
LA CHARGERS at Minnesota
NEW ENGLAND at NY Jets
BUFFALO at Washington
Houston at JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis at BALTIMORE
Carolina at SEATTLE
Chicago at KANSAS CITY
DALLAS at Arizona
PITTSBURGH at Las Vegas
Monday, September 25
PHILADELPHIA at Tampa Bay
LA RAMS at Cincinnati
Week 2 record: 10-6
Season record: 16-16
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STELLA’S PICKS
Thursday, September 21
NY Giants at SAN FRANCISCO
Sunday, September 24
TENNESSEE at Cleveland
Atlanta at DETROIT
NEW ORLEANS at Green Bay
Denver at MIAMI
LA Chargers at MINNESOTA
New England at NY JETS
BUFFALO at Washington
Houston at JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis at BALTIMORE
Carolina at SEATTLE
Chicago at KANSAS CITY
DALLAS at Arizona
Pittsburgh at LAS VEGAS
Monday, September 25
PHILADELPHIA at Tampa Bay
LA Rams at CINCINNATI
Week 2 record: 9-7
Season record: 18-14